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A live board of every play across racing, AFL, NRL, MLB and the NFL, posted before the odds move and settled in public, win or lose.

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CLV4.9%vs closing price
ROI-6.5%on the advised price
strike22.6%95 from 420

Return on the advised price at the advised stake, since 11 June.

  • 12 Sep 2026: Every play is graded on the record's own evidence before it is advised: a chance from the market's consensus through the curve our settled plays trace, a calibrated place chance against the place price, the better market taken, and the stake from half-Kelly on that chance. A read the evidence does not support is shown as no bet, with the reason.
  • 9 Sep 2026: Stakes sized from the market's probability rather than the model's; every play sat at the 0.25u floor.
  • 8 Sep 2026: Place bets and sized stakes: a play carries a market (win or place) and a stake from 0.25u to 3u; before this every play was one unit on the win.
NRL, Sun 4:05pmSydney Roosters v Melbourne Storm
Melbourne Storm +11.5 @ $1.96

The line has the Storm as strangers to a contest. Short turnaround both ways, but this side keeps games tight away from home. Plenty of overs at the price.

Settled, Storm covered, +0.96u, beat the close

A real entry from the ledger, as members received it.

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